UK inflation has defied economists' expectations by remaining stubbornly at 2.8% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The static figure comes as a surprise amidst the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed up global energy prices and subsequently fuel costs for British consumers.
The ONS data reveals that transport costs were the primary drivers of inflation, with a significant 6.8% increase in May – the highest rate since December 2022. This was largely due to a 10.3% hike in airfares between April and May, potentially influenced by the timing of Easter and school holidays, particularly affecting European flights.
However, the ONS also reported that lower food prices across various meat, dairy, and vegetable items, alongside a reduction in domestic heating oil costs, helped stabilise the overall inflation rate. This deceleration in food price inflation partly offset the upward pressure from transport costs, resulting in no change to the 2.8% headline figure.
The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, welcomed the stability in inflation, crediting measures such as energy bill cuts and freezes on fuel duty and rail fares for protecting families and businesses from rising costs. This stability has also had a positive impact on UK borrowing costs, with the yield on the 10-year UK government bond dropping to 4.75% – its lowest in a month.
Despite the current stability, the inflation rate remains above the Government's 2% target, a key consideration for Bank of England policymakers ahead of their interest rate decision on Thursday. Markets are widely anticipating that borrowing costs will remain at 3.75%, as the Bank assesses the broader economic impact of the international situation.
Economists now await a potential agreement between the US and the Iranian regime, which could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate some of these price pressures. Suren Thiru, chief economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, suggests that while such a deal might be too late to prevent immediate price rises, it could help prevent further inflation spikes and potentially stabilise oil prices in the coming months.
Core inflation, which excludes more volatile components like energy and food, saw a slight increase to 2.6% in May from 2.5% in April, driven by rising transport costs.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly pushed up oil prices in recent months, affecting not just fuel but also chemical and fertiliser costs across supply chains. This has added pressure on household finances, with UK consumers already facing increased fuel bills due to a combination of global price pressures and domestic policy decisions.