The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has published a comprehensive analysis revealing that the UK's tax burden is at its highest sustained level since the late 1940s. The report, 'The government’s record on tax 2010–24', indicates that the amount of tax collected as a proportion of national income is projected to reach 37.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2028-29, a significant increase from 33.1% in 2019-20. This upward trend is primarily driven by a series of fiscal consolidation measures implemented over the past decade and a half.
A key factor contributing to this escalating tax burden is the decision to freeze income tax and National Insurance thresholds. While these freezes might appear to be a less direct way of raising revenue compared to explicit tax rate hikes, their impact is substantial, particularly during periods of high inflation. As wages increase, more individuals are pulled into higher tax bands, and existing taxpayers pay a larger proportion of their income in tax, a phenomenon often referred to as 'fiscal drag'. The IFS estimates that an average earner will face an additional tax bill of more than £800 per year by 2028-29 due to these frozen thresholds.
Beyond individual taxation, the report highlights the significant role of corporation tax changes. The main rate of corporation tax was increased from 19% to 25% in April 2023, a move that substantially boosts government revenues. Other notable changes include the introduction of the Apprenticeship Levy, the increase in the main rate of VAT from 17.5% to 20% in 2011, and increases to dividend tax rates. These measures, collectively, have contributed to the overall increase in the tax take.
The current Conservative government, in power since 2010, has overseen a period of considerable fiscal adjustment. Initially, the focus was on reducing the budget deficit following the 2008 financial crisis. More recently, the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis have necessitated further revenue-raising measures. The Chancellor of the Exchequer and other Treasury ministers have consistently argued that these decisions are necessary to ensure the long-term sustainability of public finances and to fund essential public services.
Opposition parties have frequently criticised the government's approach to taxation. The Labour Party, for instance, has argued that the current tax system places an undue burden on working families and that the government lacks a coherent long-term economic strategy. They have often called for a fairer tax system, potentially involving higher taxes on wealth or specific sectors, although precise proposals vary. The Liberal Democrats have also voiced concerns about the impact of frozen thresholds on middle-income earners and have advocated for reforms to ease the pressure on households.
The implications for UK citizens are broad. Higher taxes mean less disposable income for households, potentially impacting consumer spending and savings. Businesses may also face increased costs, which could influence investment decisions and economic growth. The IFS report provides crucial context for understanding the current economic landscape and the choices facing policymakers as the country approaches a general election.
Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies