The warning signs are clear: foreign threats are escalating and the UK's complacency is putting it at risk of being caught off guard. So warns Dr Charles Woodburn, the chief executive of BAE Systems, Europe's largest defence contractor, who claims that the current level of threat is the highest he has observed during his lifetime.
While recent increases in defence spending have been welcomed by some, Dr Woodburn stresses that significantly more investment will be needed to achieve the government's stated aim of allocating 3.5% of GDP to defence by 2035. He expresses particular concern about the proliferation of autonomous lethal weapons, highlighting the risk that some nations might not adhere to the UK's policy of maintaining human oversight in their deployment.
The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated how countries are becoming increasingly adept at utilising drones and counter-drone technology, fundamentally altering the landscape of military engagement. Dr Woodburn notes that this shift is not just about the use of new technology, but also about a change in the nature of modern warfare, with adversaries investing heavily in large-scale platforms supplemented by autonomous systems.
Speaking at the Farnborough International Air Show, where BAE Systems unveiled a life-size model of an unmanned fighter jet, Dr Woodburn explained that such Collaborative Combat Aircraft could significantly enhance firepower when accompanying manned fighters, at a fraction of the cost. However, he also emphasised the continued relevance of traditional platforms like battleships and submarines, which BAE has manufactured for decades.
Dr Woodburn's concerns are not new, dating back to his arrival at BAE Systems in 2016 when he was already struck by the activities of Russian submarines and the prevalence of cyberattacks. He notes that the Ukraine conflict has regrettably brought a heightened awareness of the proximity of a 'hot war' in Europe.
The appointment of former Defence Secretary John Healy to Chancellor of the Exchequer may bring some relief, given his vocal advocacy for increased military spending. However, achieving the 3.5% target by 2035 will require substantial further investment, a challenge that he will now face from within the Treasury, balancing defence needs against other pressing national priorities.
The BAE Systems chief's warnings echo sentiments from senior armed forces figures and even critical remarks from US military officials regarding the readiness of the UK's armed forces for conflict. The delayed mobilisation of HMS Dragon for air cover in Cyprus has attracted scrutiny, raising questions about the UK's ability to respond effectively to emerging threats.
Dr Woodburn's call for increased investment in defence comes as the government faces mounting pressure to meet its defence spending commitments. With the UK's security landscape becoming increasingly complex and uncertain, Dr Woodburn's warnings serve as a stark reminder of the need for sustained investment in defence capabilities.