As tensions on the Russia-Ukraine frontlines continue to escalate, Ukraine is taking significant steps to fortify its northern border, constructing a range of defensive measures including anti-tank ditches and concrete obstacles to thwart potential Russian advances. The development comes amid growing concerns in Kyiv that Belarus's increasing involvement in the conflict could pose a major threat to Ukrainian security.
The recent surge in drone activity above Ukraine is a particular cause for concern, with reports suggesting that approximately 20% more Russian intelligence drones are flying from Belarusian airspace since the start of the year. This coincides with the establishment of five new drone bases near the Russia-Belarus border, sparking fears that Moscow may be intensifying efforts to draw its ally deeper into the war.
While there is currently no evidence of large-scale troop build-ups on Belarusian territory, Ukrainian and European officials remain concerned about Minsk's growing integration with Russia's military machine. This includes joint nuclear exercises conducted earlier this year, which have heightened fears of a potential repeat invasion from Belarusian soil.
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has voiced significant alarm over Belarus's intentions, suggesting that President Aleksandr Lukashenko may be preparing for war. In a recent television interview, Kuleba stated that the current situation differs significantly from 2022, when Russian forces invaded Ukraine through Belarusian territory. While not predicting an immediate offensive, Kuleba indicated that a series of unfolding events gives reason to believe Lukashenko might be aligning himself with Moscow's military strategy.
Reports have emerged in recent months indicating that Belarus has been expanding infrastructure supporting Russian operations, including logistics routes and communications systems. These developments are seen as facilitating Russian drone strikes into Ukraine, utilising Belarusian border areas as an air corridor. This infrastructure expansion, coupled with a rise in pro-Russian messaging within Belarus, suggests sustained pressure from Moscow on Lukashenko to enhance cooperation.
However, some experts remain sceptical that Lukashenko would risk committing Belarusian troops to direct combat. Yevhen Mahda, director of Kyiv's Institute of World Policy, notes that such a move would carry severe political consequences for the Belarusian president. Last month, Ukraine's unmanned forces commander, Robert Brovdi, issued a warning that Kyiv has identified around 500 targets it would strike if Minsk's involvement in the conflict became more direct.