The unyielding conflict between Ukraine and Russia has reached a critical juncture with Kyiv's 40-day campaign against Russian-occupied territories entering its fourth week. Launched by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on June 26, the initiative has escalated Ukrainian offensive operations, targeting crucial supply lines within occupied areas, including Crimea, alongside high-profile long-range missile strikes on major Russian cities such as Moscow and St Petersburg.
According to Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, Zelenskyy's '40-day' framing has both spiritual and political significance. The period coincides with an Orthodox Christian concept of purgatory, implying a decisive moment for Russia, while also referencing Russian domestic politics ahead of the September Duma elections. Lutsevych suggests that Kyiv aims to bring the reality of the conflict directly to Moscow and St Petersburg.
Professor Phillips O'Brien of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews views the campaign primarily as a psychological operation. While not expecting it to force Russian surrender, he sees it as a powerful message that Ukraine can take the war to Russian soil. A key objective, O'Brien notes, is to precipitate an oil crisis in Russia. Furthermore, the campaign aims to re-energise Ukrainian public morale by demonstrating dynamism and initiative on the battlefield, countering perceptions of a stalemate.
Although Zelenskyy's initial announcement lacked explicit details, subsequent comments from Ukrainian officials have clarified that the campaign integrates several ongoing efforts. These include a 'middle strike strategy' to disrupt Russian supply lines and a long-range strike campaign against military industrial sites, refineries, shipping, and major cities. Retired Australian general Mick Ryan describes it as an 'influence operation' aimed at compelling Russia to end its invasion, focusing on deep strikes against critical infrastructure.
The impact so far appears significant. Ukraine's general staff claimed by 5 July to have disabled 42.74% of Russia's oil refining capacity, reporting eight refineries hit and over 60 storage tanks destroyed or damaged, with cumulative industry losses estimated at £13.5 billion. Recent operations attributed to the campaign include strikes on military airfields in Crimea, the St Petersburg oil terminal, and various oil refineries across Russia. These intensified attacks have reportedly shocked residents in Moscow, who are now experiencing the war's direct consequences more acutely.