The United Nations has issued a warning that the El Niño climate phenomenon is "supersizing before our eyes" and is expected to shatter temperature records. According to the latest forecasts, the event is likely to be the largest in at least 1,000 years.
This El Niño is anticipated to add significant heat to an atmosphere already experiencing rising temperatures due to global heating. This combination means that 2027 is projected to "blow apart" previous records and become the hottest year ever recorded.
The rising heat from El Niño is already causing impacts, including worsening wildfires in Indonesia and weakening monsoon rains in India. These impacts are expected to spread globally, increasing fire risk in Australia and intensifying floods in South America. The World Food Programme indicated in August that El Niño could push approximately 50 million people into acute hunger.
The current ocean temperature at the heart of El Niño is 2.6C above the 30-year average, as of Monday's data. This is close to the highest anomaly ever recorded in the satellite data era, which was 3.1C in 2015, with the peak of the current event still months away.
The peak is forecast to reach around 4C in November, based on the average of 14 different models. Climate analyst Zeke Hausfather noted that data from coral, tree rings, and historical documents suggest no El Niño has reached this level in the last millennium.