The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran hangs precariously in the balance as the two nations ink an initial peace deal amidst the ruins of conflict. The agreement, which has taken immediate effect, promises a long-overdue respite from the economic devastation inflicted by the war – with $300bn earmarked for Iran's reconstruction and all sanctions lifted – but a far more contentious issue remains to be resolved: Tehran's nuclear programme.
A 60-day negotiation period, extendable at both parties' discretion, has been set aside for hammering out the details of Iran's atomic ambitions. This is the crux of the conflict that drove the US and Israel to launch their devastating military campaign against Iran on 28 February – with energy prices soaring and inflationary pressures intensifying as a result.
US President Donald Trump, addressing reporters in the aftermath of signing the deal, claimed it would stave off an 'economic catastrophe', averting a global depression that he said had been looming large over the world economy. He also noted that whenever there were hints of peace on the horizon, stock markets tend to soar.
The agreement itself includes a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) – a non-binding document committing both parties to negotiate and reach a final deal within 60 days. The MoU states unequivocally that Iran will not develop or procure nuclear weapons, a stipulation that has been at the heart of the conflict from its inception.
The immediate impact of the agreement has seen oil prices dip slightly – with Brent crude trading around 1% lower at $78.79 (£59.21) per barrel. However, as Iran's parliamentary speaker intimated, there are indications that Tehran may seek to charge ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz once the agreed-upon deadline has lapsed.