Voters across the US will decide on 3 November whether Republicans will maintain control of Congress or if Democrats will return to the majority. Many indicators of voter sentiment suggest Democrats are favoured to take back control of the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate.
A victory in either chamber would be significant for the Democratic party, potentially allowing them to block President Trump's legislative agenda and increase investigations into his administration.
Polling data indicates a nationwide shift towards the Democrats, even in traditionally Republican states. Recent surveys of the generic ballot, a key measure of voter intent, show Democrats with an advantage ranging from high single digits to low double digits.
Events this year, including the Iran war and its impact on inflation, appear to have influenced the race, with much of the advantage swinging towards the Democrats. Democratic candidates have focused their campaigns on affordability, as the Trump administration's actions in the Middle East have reportedly driven up prices, particularly for gasoline and diesel.
The economy is rated by US voters as the most important issue in surveys, surpassing immigration, healthcare, or civil rights. President Trump's personal approval ratings have also declined, with Reuters/Ipsos reporting that only 32% of US adults now approve of his job performance. This figure is lower than his previous low of 34%, recorded by Gallup in 2021.