US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to meet with key Gulf allies this week, amid growing unease over a fragile ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. The 60-day deal, struck last week, has sparked divisions within the region, with some nations fearing it could embolden Tehran's military ambitions and regional activities. Mr Rubio's diplomatic visit is aimed at reassuring Washington's Gulf allies of their continued security commitment, amidst concerns that the deal's financial benefits could be channelled into Iran's military arsenal.
While Qatar played a key role in mediating the ceasefire, other Gulf states – including the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain – have expressed significant trepidation. Their worry centres on the substantial sums of money Iran is expected to gain from unfrozen assets, which they fear could be diverted into its military and regional activities. US President Donald Trump has sought to alleviate these concerns, stating that the unfrozen funds would remain under US control and be used for humanitarian purposes, specifically to purchase food and medical supplies from the US.
This marks Mr Rubio's first trip to the region since the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran escalated on 28 February. The countries on his itinerary – each of which hosts significant US military bases – have reportedly been targeted by Iranian missiles, although the scale of these impacts remains unclear. There have been reports of severe penalties for those using social media to reveal damage within these nations. President Trump recently revealed that the UAE was involved in counterattacks against Iran, a claim echoed by Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei, who also implicated Kuwait and Jordan in assisting US attacks.
The long-term ambition of the Iranian government is to persuade Gulf states to facilitate the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Discussions within Iran and the Gulf are currently fluid, with some Iranian voices advocating for a rapprochement with regional powers, potentially through an alliance with countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's recent visit to Pakistan – his first overseas trip since the conflict's end – underscores this diplomatic push. There are also indications that the UAE, which shares close economic ties with Iran, is seeking to de-escalate tensions.
In the immediate term, Iran anticipates the unfreezing of approximately $6 billion (£4.54 billion) of its assets held in Qatar due to US sanctions. An additional $6 billion is expected from Doha as a repayable loan. Furthermore, over the next two months, Iran could receive at least $8 billion in income following the US Treasury's decision to issue a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil exports. This waiver document explicitly states that these payments can be made in US dollars. Some internal Iranian estimates suggest that unimpeded oil sales, combined with the unfrozen assets, could generate an estimated $14 billion for the regime.