The latest quarterly data published by Gallup shows a shift in US voter affiliation, with 49% of surveyed voters leaning Democrat, including independents asked to choose a party. In contrast, 39% of respondents leaned Republican.
This 10-point spread represents a significant change from the fourth quarter of 2024, when Republicans held a four-point advantage over Democrats. According to the New York Times, this is the most substantial advantage for Democrats since 2008.
The data suggests a potential backlash against President Trump's second term, with 58% of voters now disapproving of his performance, compared to 38% who approve. His approval rating was 52% at his second inauguration in January 2025.
Democrats are reportedly hoping to capitalise on this shift, with liberals likely to retake the US House of Representatives in the upcoming November midterm elections. While retaking the US Senate is less certain, polling offers reasons for optimism.