Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is anticipated to face a leadership challenge when the state parliament reconvenes this week. This development follows a Sunday night meeting where key Labor factional conveners from both the left and right wings reportedly determined that Ms Allan no longer commands the support of a majority within the caucus.
The path to a leadership contest remains somewhat unclear, primarily due to Deputy Premier Ben Carroll's reported stance that he would only seek the leadership if the position were vacant. One option reportedly discussed by factions on Sunday was for a group of ministers to approach Ms Allan ahead of a planned cabinet meeting on Monday. Their intention was to inform her that she had lost the confidence of her colleagues, hoping she would resign before a potential vote during Tuesday's caucus meeting, which marks the first day of parliament after the winter recess.
However, if Ms Allan chooses to contest a leadership ballot, the process would be significantly extended. Rule changes, implemented following a period of instability in federal Labor politics, dictate that the entire Victorian Labor membership would also participate in a vote, a process that could take several weeks. These state-level rules remain untested.
A minister close to Ms Allan has maintained that the Premier is "not going anywhere," suggesting that the leak of the meeting's details was an attempt to generate momentum for a leadership spill. Attorney General Sonya Kilkenny, a vocal supporter of the Premier, dismissed the leadership speculation as "idle gossip" earlier on Sunday, emphasising the government's focus on Victorians.
Momentum for a challenge has been building since before parliament rose for its winter break in June. Factors contributing to this include poor polling figures, Ms Allan's low personal approval ratings, increasing support for the One Nation party, and concerns regarding her administration's response to organised crime's alleged infiltration of the state's significant 'Big Build' infrastructure projects, particularly via the construction union. Ms Allan, who previously oversaw the 'Big Build' as Minister for Transport Infrastructure, has resisted calls for a royal commission into these concerns. It is understood that Mr Carroll, if he were to become leader, would immediately initiate a royal commission, aim to resolve the ongoing pay dispute with public school teachers, and work to bolster the party's economic standing and relationship with the business community.