Thousands of people who have sought shelter in the city of el-Obeid, Sudan, are now under renewed threat as warnings emerge that paramilitary fighters are preparing to advance on the army-controlled city. Clashes between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the military have escalated in the North Kordofan region, a critical target for both sides in the ongoing conflict.
El-Obeid has become a key refuge for people escaping violence in surrounding areas, with the UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM) reporting that families have run out of safe options. Satellite imagery indicates a significant expansion of the main displacement camp since March, with aid workers noting dozens of new arrivals daily.
The UN and G7 foreign ministers have issued warnings that the RSF may be preparing to attack el-Obeid, prompting fears of atrocities similar to those that occurred in el-Fasher last October. Verified footage shows heavily armed RSF troops in armoured trucks stationed in Nyala, a nearby stronghold, vowing to "liberate" the city. RSF drone strikes on el-Obeid were reportedly at a record high in June, according to the monitoring group Acled.
Conditions in el-Obeid have deteriorated as displacement camps expand. The UN warned last week that nearly 400,000 people in the city's vicinity face food shortages due to RSF efforts to cut off supply routes, creating what one UN official described as a "functional siege." Aid agencies report that food and water shortages have been worsened by RSF drone strikes on critical infrastructure.
The Sudanese military appears to be reinforcing its defences, with satellite images suggesting the construction of a defensive berm around the city. On Monday, the military also stated that a major operation had secured a vital highway between el-Obeid and the capital, Khartoum. RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, has reportedly ordered his front-line commanders to "move straight forward. No more retreat. No more hesitation."