With the World Cup entering its high-stakes knockout rounds, the dreaded penalty shootout once again looms large. New analysis, conducted by BBC Sport and Opta, has delved into the 320 spot-kicks taken across 35 shootouts since the 1982 tournament, offering a fascinating look at the factors that contribute to success or failure from 12 yards.
The study highlights a clear hierarchy among nations. Argentina stands out as the most successful, having won six of their seven shootouts, including the dramatic 2022 final. Germany and Croatia also boast impressive 100% records, each winning all four of their shootouts. Conversely, Spain now holds the unenviable record for the most missed penalties, with nine, following their three misses against Morocco in 2022. England, with eight misses, previously held this distinction and has lost three of their four shootouts.
Individual brilliance often shines through under pressure. Argentina's Lionel Messi and Croatia's Luka Modric are the only two players to have scored in three different World Cup penalty shootouts, both maintaining a flawless 100% conversion rate. In goal, Croatian keepers Danijel Subasic (2018) and Dominik Livakovic (2022), both hailing from Zadar, have each saved four penalties, a record they share with West Germany's Harald Schumacher and Argentina's Sergio Goycochea. Portugal's Ricardo holds the highest save percentage at 75% from four penalties faced.
Tactical choices for takers also play a significant role. The data suggests that players who pick a side, either left or right, are more likely to score, with success rates of 72.4% and 71.1% respectively. In stark contrast, attempting a central kick yields a success rate of only 61.6%. While fewer central kicks are saved by goalkeepers, a higher percentage (19.2%) miss the target entirely, including hitting the woodwork, compared to just 5.7% for shots aimed to the sides.
The order of penalties also presents interesting trends. There appears to be no distinct advantage for the team going first or second, with both winning an almost equal number of shootouts. However, the pressure seems to mount as the shootout progresses. The first player for each team has the highest scoring success rate at 72.9%, which dips slightly for the second and third takers. The fourth round sees a noticeable drop to 64.2%, with the eighth overall taker (the second kicker in the fourth round) exhibiting the lowest success rate at 59.4%, possibly due to the immense pressure of keeping their team in contention.
These detailed insights provide a compelling blueprint for how teams might approach the mental and technical challenge of a World Cup penalty shootout, potentially influencing coaching strategies and player selections as the tournament progresses.
Source: BBC Sport and Opta