A new YouGov MRP poll released today, 24 September 2026, suggests that Labour would emerge as the largest party in a hung parliament if an election were held immediately. The model's central estimates project Labour to secure 241 seats.
This result would represent a net loss of 170 seats for Labour compared to the 2024 election, though it marks an improvement from a YouGov MRP poll conducted a year ago, which projected the party would be reduced to 144 seats.
The poll also indicates a close contest between Reform UK and the Conservatives, with Reform UK projected to win 123 seats and the Conservatives 130 seats in the median projection. The Liberal Democrats are estimated to secure 71 seats, the SNP 40, Plaid Cymru 15, and the Greens nine.
YouGov surveyed nearly 17,000 individuals for the poll, with data collected between 23 August and 18 September.