City analysts are predicting that the Bank of England could today indicate a series of interest rate hikes for this year. This follows price shocks across the global economy in the past quarter, attributed to the war in Iran.
While the Bank is widely expected to maintain interest rates at 3.75 per cent, some traders are concerned that more members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) might support tighter monetary policy. Huw Pill and Megan Greene previously voted for a rate increase, and strategists at Mizuho suggest Catherine Mann could also back a hike, with Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli identified as another potential hawkish vote.
The Bank has been addressing persistent inflation, partly fuelled by increased energy prices due to the conflict in Iran. The independent think tank NIESR reported yesterday that inflation is likely to stay above the Bank's two per cent target until 2029, even if hostilities cool and oil prices stabilise at $74 per barrel.
A split vote on the MPC, such as 6-3 or 5-4, could indicate forthcoming interest rate increases. Market expectations, as suggested by two-year gilt yields, already point to investors believing there could be up to three hikes on the horizon.
Conversely, some City firms, including Peel Hunt and Berenberg, forecast that the Bank's next move will be to cut interest rates. Berenberg believes a cut could occur as early as December, with further reductions to three per cent by mid-2027.