The Brexit referendum's defining image – a Vote Leave battle bus emblazoned with the claim: 'We send the EU £350 million a week. Let's fund our NHS instead' – has become an enduring symbol of the campaign. But ten years on, how much did this promise deliver? As the UK's departure from the European Union marked a new era for the nation, it also created a complex landscape that would test the reality of these high-profile commitments.
The £350 million claim was contested by experts even during the 2016 referendum campaign. Critics pointed out that it didn't account for the UK's benefits from EU membership, such as access to the single market and funding for various programmes. Despite this, the argument resonated with many, particularly given the slowdown in NHS spending growth in the years preceding the vote.
Health spending in the UK has indeed increased since 2016, both in real terms and as a share of GDP. Max Warner, an expert on health and social care spending at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, notes that this increase is largely due to annual rises in spending, rather than any direct link to Brexit.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on NHS funding, with expenditure far exceeding initial projections. While health spending is now higher than pre-pandemic levels and at the time of the referendum, it's impossible to say whether this increase would have happened regardless of Brexit. The pandemic's unprecedented demands on the health service have driven the surge in funding.
Economists believe that Brexit has resulted in a smaller UK economy, with estimates suggesting a reduction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of at least 4%. Rachel Reeves' recent forecast puts it as high as 8%. Warner argues that this economic hit means lower tax revenues, making sustained spending growth on public services like the NHS more challenging. He suggests that the economic implications of Brexit may have outweighed any financial benefit from ceasing contributions to the EU budget.
This raises questions about the long-term sustainability of NHS funding. The complex interplay of economic performance, global events, and political decisions makes it difficult to assess the original promise's direct impact on NHS funding.