The seismic Brexit referendum campaign of 2016 has been laid bare in an oral history, exposing deep divisions within the Conservative Party and the intense personal dilemmas faced by key players. The revelations offer a gripping insight into the behind-the-scenes struggles that led to the UK's historic decision to leave the European Union.
The seeds of the referendum were sown in 2013 when David Cameron pledged a future Conservative government would hold a vote on Britain's EU membership. However, this promise was met with trepidation by some within his own party. Bernard Jenkin, a senior Conservative backbencher who campaigned for Leave, recalled warning Mr Cameron against an 'in/out' referendum, fearing it would 'smash the Conservative party'. He noted that the then Prime Minister underestimated the extent of Euroscepticism among his MPs, believing only around 50 might vote Leave.
David Lidington, a former Minister for Europe and close ally of Mr Cameron, expressed reservations about the referendum. While understanding Mr Cameron's reasoning to address what he saw as a 'boil of disaffection' over Europe within the Conservative Party, Mr Lidington likened the strategy to 'chucking lumps of red meat to pursuing wolves', suggesting it would only temporarily placate discontent. This sentiment was echoed by Craig Oliver, Director of Communications for Downing Street and the official Remain campaign, who described entering the campaign with a 'bleak view' due to the profound internal party battle.
A turning point arrived on 21st February 2016 when Boris Johnson, then Mayor of London, announced his decision to campaign for Leave. Will Walden, Mr Johnson's Director of Communications at the time, described the intense internal struggle Mr Johnson faced over that weekend, being 'buffeted from all sides'. Mr Walden indicated that Mr Johnson was genuinely divided, being pro-European but with reservations about the EU, and that his ultimate decision was reached after considerable prevarication. This announcement reportedly 'changed the course of history', according to Mr Walden.
The decision by Mr Johnson is said to have 'shocked and fed up' Mr Cameron and his team. However, Mr Lidington suggested that Mr Cameron was even more personally upset by Justice Secretary Michael Gove's decision to support Leave, viewing it as a deeper breach of friendship. Mr Lidington also indicated that Mr Cameron's camp largely perceived Mr Johnson's move as driven by ambition and a desire to position himself as a future leader, rather than solely by principle. Labour MP Jess Phillips, who campaigned for Remain, admitted to underestimating the potential danger posed by Mr Johnson at the time.