Chelsea find themselves in a familiar position, having finished 10th in the Premier League last season, a decade after achieving the same mid-table spot before their unexpected title win under Antonio Conte. With new manager Xabi Alonso at the helm and no European football commitments, the Blues are aiming to replicate that remarkable turnaround.
The club's 2025-26 Premier League record is strikingly similar to their 2015-16 campaign, with just one more goal scored, one more conceded, the same goal difference, and two additional points. A decade ago, Conte's tactical switch to a back three after a 3-0 defeat to Arsenal sparked a 13-game winning streak, leading to the title. Alonso's successful Bayer Leverkusen side also played with three at the back during their unbeaten Bundesliga win in 2023-24, suggesting a potential tactical shift for Chelsea.
Improving their points tally by 43 points, as Conte's Chelsea did, would be a monumental task for Alonso's squad. However, the bar for winning the Premier League has reportedly lowered in recent seasons compared to the Guardiola-Klopp era. Despite their 10th-place finish, Chelsea's underlying expected goal numbers suggest they were the fourth-most dominant team in the league, though they struggled with finishing, scoring eight fewer goals than expected.
The absence of European football could provide a significant boost. Historically, 'Big Six' teams without European competition have, on average, climbed five places and gained 16 more points in the following Premier League season. Alonso's track record at Bayer Leverkusen, where he took the club from the relegation zone to an unbeaten Bundesliga title in his first full season, demonstrates his capability for transformative success.