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Canada's Economy Adjusts Amidst Slower Population Growth

Canada's annual population growth has slowed to 0.5% from 3.1% in early 2024, following policies aimed at reducing temporary migrants. Economists describe the economy as "adjusting" rather than "broken."

  • Canada's annual population growth has decreased to 0.5% from 3.1% in early 2024.
  • The CD Howe Institute forecasts real GDP growth in Canada may be no more than 0.5% in 2026.
  • Canada's policymakers have aimed to reduce temporary migrants as a share of the population from 7.6% in 2024 to 5%.

Canada's annual population growth has slowed significantly to 0.5%, down from 3.1% in early 2024. This follows a suite of policies implemented by the Canadian government to reduce the number of temporary migrants as a share of the population.

The government's goal is to decrease the proportion of temporary migrants from a peak of 7.6% in 2024 to 5%. Measures include reducing temporary arrivals, particularly international students, making it harder to extend stays, and granting some temporary migrants permanent residency.

Despite concerns, economists suggest the Canadian economy is "adjusting" rather than struggling. The CD Howe Institute, a Canadian thinktank, estimated in May that employment in Canada could fall this year and next, with real GDP growth in 2026 potentially not exceeding 0.5%. However, the report's authors, Don Drummond and Parisa Mahboubi, stated these are "not signs of a struggling economy." Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, also noted that the per capita economy appears to be improving.

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