China's economy expanded by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, according to figures reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This growth, recorded between July and September, was higher than the 4.3% seen in the previous quarter and surpassed economists' expectations.
Strong exports were a key driver of this economic growth, with factory output increasing significantly. Industrial production rose by 5.5% in September, up from 5.2% in August. Manufacturing output growth remained robust at 6.0% year-on-year in September, boosted by demand for electronics, AI-related equipment, and autos.
Overall, China's economy has grown by 4.6% in the first nine months of the year, putting it on track to meet the government's 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5% without additional stimulus measures. However, consumer spending growth was more modest, with retail sales increasing by 1.1% in September, up from 0.4%.
Analysts at ABN Amro noted that the pickup in GDP growth primarily reflects ongoing export strength due to the global AI/tech boom, which has largely offset the impact of the Iran conflict and persistent weakness in domestic demand. Fixed-asset investment fell by 7.2% over the first nine months, and property investment declined by 20.6%.