The future of the Amazon rainforest and the livelihoods of thousands of farmers in Colombia hang in the balance as the country prepares for a knife-edge presidential election run-off on 21 June. The highly polarised vote pits far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella against left-wing Iván Cepeda, with the outcome set to dictate the direction of environmental protection and rural development policies.
For many small-scale landowners, like Pablo Peña in Guaviare, central Colombia, the election represents a critical juncture. Peña, who moved to the region over 30 years ago seeking to escape violence, has witnessed firsthand the devastating impact of conflict and deforestation. After the 2016 peace treaty between the government and the FARC guerrillas, Peña and his community began establishing Peasant Reserve Zones (ZRCs) in 2018. These designated land-use areas are designed to safeguard rural communities, support local farmers, and stabilise territories often caught in ongoing conflict.
ZRCs have been a cornerstone of current President Gustavo Petro’s administration, aiming to improve farmers' livelihoods while simultaneously tackling deforestation and protecting the Amazon's rich biodiversity. Over the past four years, Petro's government has established 20 of the 27 existing zones. However, with Petro's term ending, farmers like Peña fear that a victory for the far-right candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella, could jeopardise the future of these vital conservation initiatives.
De la Espriella secured a narrow lead over Cepeda in the first round of voting on 31 May. The impending run-off will determine whether Colombians support a continuation of Petro's policies, which emphasise dialogue and reform, or opt for a return to a more hardline, militarised strategy proposed by De la Espriella. Decades of coca leaf cultivation, exacerbated by the 'war on drugs' and subsequent shifts to cattle ranching, have led to severe deforestation. For instance, between 2002 and 2025, Guaviare lost an estimated 350,000 hectares of forest, an area nearly five times the size of Singapore.
While some ZRCs, such as the Guardian of Chiribiquete in Calamar, have demonstrated success in fostering sustainable economies and protecting native forests, their long-term viability depends heavily on sustained government investment and collaboration. Camilo González Posso, founder of the peacebuilding NGO Indepaz, highlights that ZRCs not only integrate farmers into institutional frameworks, moving them away from armed groups, but also have a positive environmental impact when coupled with sustainable development investments. The UK Foreign Office currently advises against all but essential travel to certain rural areas of Colombia due to the presence of illegal armed groups and criminal gangs, underscoring the ongoing security challenges in these regions.
The outcome of this election holds significant implications beyond Colombia's borders. The Amazon rainforest plays a critical role in global climate regulation and biodiversity. A shift away from conservation efforts could accelerate deforestation, impacting global climate change targets and biodiversity loss, issues of direct concern to the UK and its international environmental commitments.