As Colombia teeters on the brink of crisis, its citizens head to the polls on Sunday in an election that will decide the fate of a nation torn apart by six decades of conflict. The escalating violence between armed groups, the state, and drug cartels has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, and the outcome of this presidential contest will have far-reaching implications for security, stability, and the prospects for peace in one of South America's most volatile countries.
Reports from organisations supporting displaced people in Bogotá paint a stark picture of the human cost of this escalating violence. Edilma Martinez Flores, who fled her home near Cali after being forced to leave by armed groups issuing threats, is just one of countless victims. Her story underscores why insecurity remains a primary concern for many Colombians, particularly as illegal armed groups – including FARC dissident factions, the National Liberation Army (ELN), and Clan del Golfo – have reportedly doubled their membership in the last five years. These groups now control vast areas vital for drug trafficking and illegal mining, with a brutal offensive between the ELN and FARC dissidents near the Venezuela-Colombia border displacing tens of thousands.
The two leading presidential candidates offer starkly contrasting visions for addressing this crisis. Left-wing senator Iván Cepeda advocates for continued negotiation with armed groups, building on his role in negotiating the 2016 peace deal that disarmed thousands of FARC fighters. He pledges to pursue 'social transformations' while reviewing and adapting the existing peace strategy – a move that supporters argue will prevent greater loss of life but critics contend has allowed armed groups to exploit ceasefires and expand their influence.
His challenger, Abelardo de la Espriella, a conservative businessman and lawyer endorsed by former US President Donald Trump, promises a tough military crackdown and an end to negotiations with criminal organisations. His campaign slogan, vowing to 'take down' any criminal who does not surrender, resonates with those frustrated by the perceived failures of current peace efforts.
Government advisors on peace and reconciliation have warned that Colombia is facing a crisis of unprecedented proportions, with forced displacement rising by 300% between 2024 and 2025. This surge is attributed to factors such as increased cocaine production, the failure of the army to occupy territories vacated by FARC after its 2016 demobilisation, and a perceived imbalance in the government's strategy – offering 'carrot but not enough stick' to criminal groups.