Hostilities in the Black Sea have escalated, with Russia and Ukraine attacking each other's ships and port infrastructure. This summer's conflict has proven deadly for seafarers, with more crew killed in July than in the entirety of the war prior to that month, making the Black Sea the most dangerous body of water for commercial shipping.
According to estimates from the Turkish seafarers’ union Türkiye Denizciler Sendikası, 23 people died in July as a result of attacks on 35 ships in the Black Sea. Attacks continued into August, prompting the head of the UN shipping agency, the International Maritime Organization, to condemn the "deterioration of maritime security around the globe."
The recent escalation has significantly reduced Russian and Ukrainian grain exports. Russia, the world's largest grain exporter, has seen its exports from Black Sea ports, which account for over 70% of its seaborne grain exports, disrupted. Ukraine, the fifth-largest exporter, was only able to export about a third of its potential grain volume in July.
Analysts at Oxford Economics forecast global food prices to rise by nearly 12% this year and an additional 4.8% in 2027. This disruption to seaborne grain exports is expected to exacerbate other food supply shocks, including the Iran war, lower European grain yields, and the developing El Niño weather system.