A global weather alert has been issued for a potentially devastating El Niño event in 2026, which could unleash extreme conditions worldwide. The natural climate phenomenon occurs when ocean surface temperatures warm in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, triggering a chain reaction that affects global weather patterns.
El Niño is characterised by warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean's surface temperatures, leading to atmospheric responses that influence global weather systems. Historically strong El Niño events have been linked to extreme weather conditions, including intense flooding in some areas and severe droughts in others.
The warning serves as a proactive measure for governments and organisations to prepare strategies to mitigate potential impacts. Although the UK is not directly affected by the tropical Pacific's warming ocean temperatures, El Niño can still have indirect effects on British weather patterns, particularly on jet stream movements. This could lead to milder winters or hotter summers.
Previous El Niño episodes have shown their capacity for widespread disruption, with estimated global economic impacts running into tens of billions of US dollars due to agricultural losses, infrastructure damage and health crises. For example, the 1997-1998 strong El Niño resulted in significant losses globally, while the 2015-2016 event contributed to record-breaking temperatures and exacerbated droughts in Africa and Southeast Asia.
Scientists closely monitor oceanic and atmospheric indicators such as sea surface temperatures and wind patterns to predict El Niño events. The lead time provided by this warning is crucial for sectors like agriculture, water management and disaster preparedness, enabling them to implement resilience measures ahead of time.
The early warning highlights the importance of international cooperation and preparedness in addressing a changing climate's challenges and natural climate variability.