The El Niño weather phenomenon to Australia’s east is already breaking heat records, with forecasts indicating it will likely easily surpass previous events, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. Separate research suggests climate change has greatly shortened the odds of the event hitting record extremes.
The UN’s weather agency stated on Thursday that the event in the Pacific is continuing to strengthen and will probably persist until early 2027. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said, “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes.”
In an update this week, the Bureau of Meteorology forecast the El Niño to peak in late spring or summer and “reach levels above the warmest observed since reliable records began in 1950.” Felicity Gamble, a senior climatologist at the BoM, noted that the rate of warming observed in the last two months has been faster than any other event.
Gamble said relative sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region for August are likely to be between 2.2C and 2.3C above average, exceeding any previous August since 1950. Forecasts suggest these temperatures could peak over 3C above average, compared to the highest previous figure of 2.6C observed in January 1983.
Scientists at the University of Melbourne have released preliminary research indicating that climate change has made “an event of this magnitude” six times more likely. Dr Andrew King, a co-author of the research, said, “It seems likely there is a human fingerprint emerging in this event.”