Global weather agencies have officially announced the start of El Niño, a natural climate pattern that is set to intensify global temperatures and extreme weather events. Both the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Japan Meteorological Agency have confirmed the onset, citing sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific being over 0.5°C above normal for the past month, with projections indicating this will continue for at least six months.
El Niño occurs when the typical east-to-west winds in the tropical Pacific weaken, allowing warmer waters from the western Pacific to spread eastwards. This broad expanse of warm water significantly heats the atmosphere, contributing to a rise in global temperatures. Experts at NOAA indicate a 63% probability that this particular El Niño will evolve into a 'super' El Niño, a classification used when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rise more than 2°C above the average. Such an event could potentially make it the hottest El Niño ever recorded.
The UK's own weather service, the Met Office, has also commented on the development. Adam Scaife from the Met Office stated that this latest El Niño is likely to be a significant event, possibly one of the most intense on record. Projections from various climate models suggest that sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific could reach as high as 2.6°C, with one Canadian model even forecasting 3°C, which would surpass the 2.5°C record set during the powerful 1982-83 super El Niño.
The anticipated peak of these temperatures is expected this winter, with effects potentially lingering into 2027. This surge of heat comes on top of existing global warming, leading scientists to predict that the coming year could be the hottest ever observed. A warmer atmosphere holds more energy and moisture, exacerbating extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall in different regions globally. For instance, parts of South-East Asia and south-east Africa could face increased risks of heat and drought, potentially leading to wildfires, while the southern US may experience reduced summer rainfall followed by a cooler, wetter winter.
While El Niño's direct impact on the UK is less certain compared to other regions like the US or Australia, it can still influence European weather patterns. Independent climate scientist Ella Gilbert noted that El Niño tends to alter storm tracks, potentially leading to warmer, wetter conditions and an increase in storm incidents for the UK. However, the complex interplay of other climate factors means the specific outcomes for Britain are less predictable than in areas closer to the Pacific.
Beyond weather, the global implications extend to commodity markets and food security. Heat and drought in key agricultural regions could affect yields of staples like rice, coffee, and chocolate. Should major producers, such as India, see declines in rice harvests, this could lead to export restrictions, making these commodities scarcer and more expensive on the global market, impacting supply chains worldwide.