The strengthening El Niño weather pattern is linked to a significant decrease in Atlantic hurricane activity this year. As of 24 September 2026, no Atlantic hurricanes have formed, a notable departure from the average of three hurricanes by early September in the 30 years leading up to 2020.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had initially forecast a quieter season, predicting between three and six hurricanes. This projection was later revised in August to between two and six. Historically, the latest date for the first Atlantic hurricane was 11 September, recorded in both 2002 and 2013.
El Niño is characterised by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and weaker trade winds. This pattern can lead to increased wind shear over the Atlantic, making it more challenging for tropical storms to develop into hurricanes, which require stable air conditions to form.
While the Atlantic has seen reduced activity, the eastern Pacific has experienced seven hurricanes so far this year. The energy associated with a strong El Niño may also contribute to more powerful tropical storms later in the season.