El Niño has officially begun, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, which confirmed the phenomenon's onset on Wednesday, 10 June. The agency stated that El Niño conditions have been present across the equatorial Pacific since spring 2026.
Forecasters are suggesting this El Niño could develop into a rare "super" event, which could dramatically alter weather patterns globally. Sea surface temperatures in the agency's Niño 3 region were 1.2°C above normal during May, with unusually warm water spreading eastwards beneath the Pacific and weakening trade winds.
The World Meteorological Organisation estimates an 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August, increasing to around 90% or more through the autumn. The organisation has advised governments to begin preparations.
Previous El Niño events have caused significant impacts, including severe drought in parts of southern Africa, Ethiopia, and Central America from 2015 to 2016. The strong El Niño in 2024 contributed to that year being the warmest on record, with extreme rainfall and flooding in southern Brazil.
The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) stated in June 2026 that this El Niño could lead to warmer-than-normal autumn temperatures in Europe, building towards spring 2027. The House of Commons Library reports that the meteorological effects of El Niño could result in more extreme winter weather in the UK in 2027.