The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a global alert, advising countries to prepare for the likely return of the El Niño weather phenomenon. The UN agency anticipates that the warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, characteristic of El Niño, could begin as early as June, with a high probability of development over the coming months.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and can persist for nine to 12 months. Its onset often leads to a cascade of global weather disruptions, influencing temperature, rainfall, and storm patterns across various regions.
The WMO's warning underscores the need for proactive measures from governments and humanitarian organisations to mitigate potential consequences. Historically, strong El Niño events have been linked to extreme weather phenomena, including severe droughts in some areas, heavy rainfall and flooding in others, and an overall increase in global average temperatures.
While the immediate direct impact on the UK's summer weather is less predictable compared to tropical regions, a strong El Niño can contribute to warmer global temperatures, which has broader implications for climate patterns. Previous El Niño events have been associated with shifts in atmospheric circulation that can indirectly affect European weather, though these effects are often complex and variable.
The current warning follows a prolonged period of La Niña, El Niño's cooler counterpart, which has now concluded. The transition from La Niña to El Niño often marks a significant shift in global climate dynamics, prompting meteorologists and climate scientists to closely monitor developments. The WMO's call for preparedness highlights the potential for widespread environmental and socio-economic challenges, particularly in regions vulnerable to climate shocks.