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EU holds potential 'choke-point' on global AI industry through ASML exports

The European Union possesses a unique leverage point over the global AI industry through Dutch tech company ASML, which produces essential machines for advanced chip-making.

  • ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines are critical for the most advanced chip-making worldwide.
  • A ban on ASML machine exports could halt the progression of AI by preventing the construction of new datacentres.
  • Prominent figures, including Bill Gates and Bernie Sanders, have called for a slowdown or pause in AI development.

The European Union could potentially slow down the global artificial intelligence (AI) industry by controlling exports from Dutch tech company ASML. ASML is Europe's most valuable company and produces extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for manufacturing the world's most advanced chips.

These machines are considered a critical 'choke-point' for the entire AI industry. Without ASML's machines, new chips cannot be made, which in turn would prevent the construction of new datacentres. This could halt AI's exponential growth and associated risks.

Calls for a slowdown or pause in AI development are growing, coming from activists, politicians, experts, and tech insiders, including Bill Gates and Bernie Sanders. Gates recently stated he would likely support a credible plan for slowing down AI advances globally, while AI company Anthropic called for a "brake pedal" earlier this summer.

An international agreement to slow AI is considered unlikely, with the industry following a logic similar to nuclear weaponry, where individual actors are incentivised to continue development. The EU, however, holds a unique position to impose a slowdown through ASML export controls, similar to how the US government currently restricts ASML's exports of advanced EUV machines to China.

Why this matters: The potential for the EU to control a critical component of AI development could significantly influence the future pace and direction of the technology, potentially allowing time for regulation and societal debate.

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