Europe's security landscape is facing a mounting challenge as the US faces severe shortages in its arsenal, prompting concerns that NATO allies may struggle to obtain vital arms supplies. The depletion of US stockpiles, largely attributed to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, has led European capitals to reassess their reliance on American defence industrial capabilities.
This year's series of delayed or cancelled arms shipments to European countries – including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Himars mobile rocket artillery, and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles – have underscored the gravity of the situation. The US reportedly expended approximately 50% of its PAC-3 missile stocks through April this year during its conflict with Iran, underscoring the significant drain on American defence reserves.
The implications for European security are stark, particularly given the reliance on these systems to counter emerging threats in Ukraine and Russia's increasing military presence on the continent. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly highlighted the critical need for more robust support from Western partners, following a recent Russian bombardment that killed at least 21 people, leaving Ukraine unable to intercept around 23 ballistic missiles due to an insufficient supply of interceptor missiles.
European capitals are increasingly frustrated by the shortages, though they have thus far avoided direct confrontation with the Trump administration to prevent a deterioration in transatlantic relations. Diplomatic sources point to multiple factors contributing to the shortage, including dwindling stocks from the wars in Iran and Ukraine, a strategic shift of US defence resources towards Asia, and prioritised replenishment of interceptor stocks for allies like Israel.
Against this backdrop, questions are being raised about whether NATO allies can rely on future US commitments, particularly given the administration's demands that member states increase their defence spending to 5% – an investment intended primarily for American arms purchases. While officials hint at significant co-production initiatives and new production lines in Europe and the US, diplomats anticipate it could take five to ten years for Europe to develop substantial defence production capabilities.
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies has estimated that it may take considerable time for the US to replenish its stockpiles, potentially leaving European nations vulnerable during this period. As NATO leaders convene in Ankara, discussions are expected to address European defence spending and the future commitment of the Trump administration – a critical juncture in determining Europe's security landscape.