Marine Le Pen's grasp on power hangs precariously in the balance as France's far-right National Rally leader faces a decisive moment in her tumultuous career. On Tuesday, a Paris appeals court will deliver its long-awaited verdict on her bid to overturn a ban from holding elected office – a ruling that could shatter the party's 2027 presidential ambitions.
The seeds of this uncertainty were sown last March when a lower court handed Le Pen a five-year ban from public office and a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended. The conviction, which implicated 24 others, related to allegations that the RN had used EU funds to employ party staff in France between 2004 and 2016. Le Pen has consistently maintained her innocence, labelling the accusations a "witch-hunt" and insisting she acted in good faith.
The decision will have far-reaching implications for the National Rally, currently polling strongly. If upheld, it would bar the 57-year-old Le Pen from leading the party's presidential campaign, paving the way for her protégé Jordan Bardella to take the reins. While Le Pen has expressed a willingness to adapt to any outcome, close allies acknowledge that her ineligibility would be a significant blow.
Prosecutors have urged the appeals court to maintain the five-year ban and impose a four-year jail term, with three years suspended. Analysts predict various potential outcomes. An acquittal is unlikely, while a reduced ban or its outright lifting are more probable scenarios. If Le Pen were found guilty but the ban reduced to two years or less, she could technically still run in 2027 – although any accompanying jail term or electronic monitoring could severely impact her campaign efforts.
Alternatively, the appeals court could uphold the immediate effect of the electoral ban, forcing Le Pen to explore further appeals to France's highest court. However, she has previously indicated that pursuing additional avenues might jeopardise the party's chances, citing the need for certainty ahead of a presidential election where both Le Pen and Bardella are expected to comfortably advance to the second round.