A new study has found that wildfires are projected to burn 39% more of Europe by the end of the century, even in the most optimistic scenario for limiting global heating. This increase is expected unless better action is taken to manage fires.
The research indicates that hotter, drier, and windier weather, driven by rising carbon pollution, will lead to more small fires escalating into large blazes across Europe. In the worst-case scenario modelled by researchers, where global heating reaches 3.6C above preindustrial levels, the area burnt by wildfires could nearly triple.
The study suggests that improvements in fire management could moderate these increases by more than 70%. However, these measures would not entirely eradicate the rise in burnt areas. Maik Billing, lead author and an ecosystem researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), stated that "Fire management cannot replace climate mitigation."
This research comes as Europe continues to experience significant wildfires, with blazes affecting northern European countries like the UK, Belgium, and Germany, following earlier infernos in France, Spain, Italy, Croatia, and Greece. Data from the European Forest Fire Information Service indicates that this fire season is set to be the third-worst on record across the EU.