A major new study has found that strong El Niño climatic patterns in recent decades, including the current “Godzilla” event, have been supercharged by the planet's overheating due to fossil fuel combustion. El Niño is a natural phenomenon occurring every two to seven years, where eastern tropical Pacific Ocean waters warm, leading to global impacts.
While El Niño typically amplifies the climate crisis, the new research establishes that human-caused global heating is also intensifying El Niño events. Julia Cole, a climate researcher at the University of Michigan and lead author of the study published in Science, stated that findings suggest global warming can supercharge El Niño.
Scientists analysed coral fossils from the Galápagos Islands, dating back 1,000 years, to determine past sea surface temperatures. The research indicates that El Niños remained stable for most of this period but began to change with industrialisation in the late 19th century, becoming more extreme in the last 40 years. El Niños' variability is now around 37% higher than in preindustrial times.
This understanding could help address a previous uncertainty in climate science regarding the climate crisis's impact on El Niño strength. Samantha Stevenson-Karl, a study co-author, noted this is a strong indication that climate change may already be amplifying these events, potentially making large events more common.
The current developing El Niño, set to peak later this year, is expected to be the strongest in living memory and has been informally named a “Godzilla” event. A recent forecast suggests this event could push around 50 million people worldwide into acute hunger before the end of next year due to its impact on food production.