France is experiencing acute bond market stress, with the difference between French and German government borrowing costs widening beyond 120 basis points on Wednesday. This marks the first time since 2012 that this key metric for French debt risk has reached such a level, occurring just a day before France is set to unveil its 2027 Budget.
French bonds, known as OATs, are also trading 22 basis points higher than their Italian counterparts, a record high since the Eurozone was established. These measures have increased over recent weeks amid speculation about France’s fiscal plans and rising price pressures, with inflation reaching a two-year high of 3.4 per cent on Wednesday, driven by energy costs from the Iran war.
The country's debt agency announced plans to issue approximately €340bn (£290bn) of OATs over the next year to address its budget deficit. The deficit is expected to grow to around 5.4 per cent this year, an increase from 5.1 per cent in 2025, despite government efforts to implement spending cuts.
Analysts have warned that this period of bond market stress could persist for several years unless presidential frontrunners for next year's election commit to tackling the deficit. George Martin, senior fixed income analyst at Raymond James, described the deficit as "not sustainable" and not a "positive outlook for the next few years."
The upcoming presidential election is adding to the uncertainty, with parties proposing increased taxpayer handouts. National Rally leader Marine Le Pen and her left-wing rival Jean-Luc Melenchon have been unwilling to compromise on spending measures proposed by President Macron. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, suggested that populist leaders in charge of a fiscally weak nation like France could "spook bond investors," potentially maintaining the French bond premium for the long term.