Demand for air conditioning (AC) globally is set to accelerate as the atmosphere continues to warm. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the global stock of air conditioners in buildings will increase to 5.6 billion by 2050, a significant rise from 2.5 billion today.
This growth is particularly pronounced in populous, generally poorer countries that are expected to experience significant temperature increases due to climate change. For instance, India's installed AC inventory is projected to surge from 48 million units in 2020 to 1.1 billion by 2050, a 23-fold increase.
The increased reliance on AC will require substantial energy. Scientists at Harvard's School of Engineering and Applied Sciences estimate that in India and Indonesia, power demand solely for cooling in 2050 could reach as high as 75% of their current total annual electricity demand. In 2022, energy used for cooling, including residential, non-residential, food and pharmaceutical cold chains, and transport cooling, contributed roughly 2.5 billion tons of CO2 equivalent emissions, representing about 7% of total emissions, according to a United Nations report. Without further strategies to improve energy efficiency and passive cooling, these emissions could rise to nearly 8 billion tons by 2050.