The world's energy watchdog has warned that the global fuel shortage is expected to continue into 2027, despite efforts to ease trade sanctions or release emergency stockpiles. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Wednesday that this prolonged shortage will be a blow to the global economy.
Record diesel prices are already having widespread economic consequences, increasing the cost of goods and affecting real incomes, economic activity, and inflation, according to the IEA. The shortage stems from the shutdown of war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia, alongside export restrictions from China, which have reduced global market supplies by approximately 1 million barrels a day from 2025 levels.
Amid this economic outlook, some Western refineries that convert crude oil into fuels are anticipating record profits. Companies like TotalEnergies have seen significant gains, with its refining and chemicals business income quadrupling to $1.8 billion (£1.35 billion) between April and June, contributing to its strongest quarterly profits in three years. Similarly, major US oil refiners such as Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 have seen their market value more than double this year.
Shell, Europe's largest oil and gas company, informed investors last week that it expects record profits from each barrel of fuel produced over the last three months, following its second-highest quarterly profit ever over the summer. Shell's refining margins are forecast to nearly double to $42 per barrel for refined product sold from July to September, up from $24 a barrel in the second quarter.
Refiners that produce diesel and jet fuel have performed best, with some adapting their capacity to meet high demand. BP, for example, shipped diesel from its Rotterdam and Cherry Point refineries to Australia and increased jet fuel production by 30% in May to address shortages in Europe.