The number of individuals claiming health-related benefits in the UK is on course to reach an unprecedented 3.7 million by the 2028-29 financial year, according to new analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). This projected increase marks a substantial rise, with associated spending forecast to reach £69 billion annually, representing a 50% real-terms increase since the 2019-20 period.
The IFS report attributes this significant trend primarily to a surge in economic inactivity among working-age adults who are experiencing long-term sickness. Data indicates that over 1.1 million more working-age individuals are currently economically inactive due to long-term health conditions compared to figures from late 2019. This demographic shift has profound implications for the UK's workforce and public finances.
The two main benefits contributing to this rise are Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and Universal Credit (UC) with a health-related element. PIP, designed to help with extra living costs if you have a long-term physical or mental health condition or disability, has seen a steady increase in claimants. Similarly, the health element of Universal Credit, supporting those unable to work due to illness, has also contributed to the escalating figures.
The government has previously acknowledged the growing challenge of economic inactivity due to ill health. The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has introduced initiatives aimed at supporting people back into employment, including reforms to the Work Capability Assessment and increased investment in mental health services. However, the IFS analysis suggests that current measures may not be sufficient to stem the tide of rising claimant numbers.
This sustained increase in health-related benefit claimants places considerable strain on the public purse and reflects a broader societal challenge regarding the health of the working-age population. The long-term implications include potential labour shortages, reduced tax revenues, and increased demand on NHS services. Policymakers face the complex task of developing effective interventions that address both the underlying health issues and the barriers to employment for those affected.
Opposition parties have frequently criticised the government's handling of the economy and public health, arguing that a lack of investment in preventative healthcare and social support has exacerbated the problem. They contend that a more holistic approach is needed to tackle the root causes of long-term sickness and to facilitate a return to work for those who are able.