Iran's recent missile strike on a US base in Jordan, which prompted Washington to resume strikes inside Iran, may be part of a strategy to pursue a controlled confrontation rather than a ceasefire. This approach could offer greater strategic leverage, according to a report published today.
Neither the US nor Iran appears ready for an all-out war. Washington has shown little appetite for a broader regional conflict that could impact energy infrastructure, involve more countries, and raise oil prices. Iran may also seek to avoid an all-out war due to its weakened air defences, vulnerable industrial infrastructure, and sanctions-constrained economy.
A prolonged ceasefire under current conditions could leave Tehran in a weaker position, with continued US naval blockades, sanctions, and exclusion from international energy markets. A limited conflict, however, could allow Iran to maintain pressure on global shipping, insurance costs, and energy markets through disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and around Bab al-Mandab.
Iran may also be attempting to reshape diplomatic discussions, signalling that shipping should operate under rules agreed with or administered by Iran. This could mean that any future reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reflects Iranian influence rather than a return to the pre-war status quo. Domestically, external conflict may help Iran suppress internal opposition and rally support amid high inflation and unemployment.
However, this strategy carries significant risks, including the possibility of a wider war and the potential for increased international support for a tougher response. Saudi Arabia has already carried out strikes against Iran-aligned Shia groups in Iraq and taken military action against the Houthis, indicating a widening conflict.