A new MRP poll suggests that if a general election were held now, Labour would remain the largest party but would not secure an overall majority. The poll also indicates that Reform would surge into second place.
Behind these figures, research by Survation and 38 Degrees has identified five distinct voter groups, collectively termed the “progressive majority”. These groups share concerns about living costs and the NHS, but hold differing views on immigration, the environment, political trust, and the necessary pace of policy change.
To achieve a parliamentary majority, Labour would need to retain the support of relatively loyal groups and win back voters who have drifted towards the Greens, Reform, or political disengagement. The five identified groups are Rooted Traditionalists, Open-hearted Idealists, Quiet Persuadables, Trusting Optimists, and Struggling Sceptics. These groups collectively account for nine in 10 current Labour voters.
The research highlights demographic differences among these groups. For instance, Quiet Persuadables are the youngest-leaning, while over a third of Rooted Traditionalists are aged over 65. Trusting Optimists are twice as likely to live in London, and Struggling Sceptics are the least financially secure.
Labour leads among all five progressive voter groups, with support ranging from 25% among Struggling Sceptics to 57% among Trusting Optimists. The Greens have gained the most support among Open-hearted Idealists, while Reform's rise is concentrated among Struggling Sceptics and Rooted Traditionalists.