The parliamentary constituency of Makerfield, a traditional Labour stronghold, is at the centre of national political attention as voters prepare to cast their ballots in a crucial by-election. The outcome is widely viewed as a significant indicator for the future direction of the Labour Party and could have broader repercussions for the UK political landscape.
A key theme emerging from discussions with voters in Ashton-in-Makerfield, a market town within the constituency, is the deeply entrenched public concern over immigration. This sentiment persists despite official figures indicating that Makerfield has a relatively low foreign-born population, significantly below the national average for England and Wales. For instance, less than one in 20 residents in the constituency are foreign-born, contrasting with approximately a quarter across England and Wales.
Many residents express a belief that rising immigration is linked to a decline in public safety and increased pressure on services, despite data suggesting that violent crime has fallen over the past two decades. This perception highlights a disconnect between official statistics and public sentiment, a gap that parties like Reform UK and the newly formed Restore Britain appear poised to exploit. Both parties are campaigning on strong anti-migrant platforms, demanding deportations of legal migrants and an overall reduction in immigration levels.
The current Labour leadership has also adjusted its rhetoric on immigration, with Sir Keir Starmer previously acknowledging "incalculable damage" from high immigration, a comment he later expressed regret over. Despite a recent fall in net migration from a post-pandemic peak of 944,000 to 171,000 last year, public perception often contradicts these figures, with only 16% of Britons believing migration decreased. This suggests that the issue's political potency remains high, irrespective of actual migration trends.
Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate, faces scrutiny over his proposals for immigration and fiscal policy. While he has called for further reductions in net migration and suggested devolving responsibility for housing asylum seekers to local authorities, some critics argue his approach may be naive given existing housing pressures. His commitment to the government's fiscal rules, which limit public spending, also raises questions about his ability to fund the significant investment needed for public services and communities, particularly if he rules out income tax increases.
Voters in Makerfield appear to be giving Mr Burnham the benefit of the doubt, with some citing his track record in Manchester, particularly regarding public transport improvements. However, the by-election outcome will be closely watched as a gauge of public mood, especially concerning the interwoven issues of immigration, public service provision, and economic stability.
Source: UKPulse Media interviews in Makerfield