The UK is likely to experience a wet and stormy autumn and early winter, according to the Met Office. This forecast is linked to an El Niño event currently developing across the Pacific Ocean, which is described as unprecedented in modern climate records.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasts at the Met Office, stated that signals for increased rainfall and storminess are already visible for autumn in the UK, especially towards November and December. The scale of the growing El Niño is expected to peak by the end of 2026, with its global influence increasing.
While a wet autumn might seem beneficial after a summer that could be the UK's hottest on record and ongoing drought conditions, the Met Office warns that increasingly intense rainfall, exacerbated by climate change, could bring a threat of flooding. Strong winds associated with storms also pose risks of damage, transport disruption, and power cuts.
The link between El Niño and cold spells in late winter is not strong, and past evidence is mixed. While the winter of 2009/2010, which was the coldest in three decades, coincided with an El Niño, the 2006/2007 El Niño winter was unseasonably warm.