New research offers insights into factors influencing productivity and economic growth, drawing on historical data and economic analysis. One study looked at the Napoleonic Wars period (1792-1815), when over 10% of working-age men were in the army and navy. By comparing two similar Norfolk parishes, researchers found that the deep-water parish, which experienced greater labour scarcity, adopted twice as many labour-saving threshing machines.
Another paper, using US data from 2003 to 2015, explored the economic contributions of international students. It found that one additional international student per thousand working-age residents raised the local employment rate by 0.19 percentage points and average wages by 0.48 per cent. This effect was attributed to student spending on housing, groceries, and tuition, which boosted local income and business dynamism.
Separately, a paper examining US total factor productivity (TFP) data from 1890 to 2022 challenges the assumption that productivity compounds exponentially. The authors argue that TFP growth has been additive since 1947, rising by a near-constant amount each year, approximately 2.5 per cent of its 1947 level. If applied to Britain, this theory could help explain some of the country's productivity slowdown.