New forecasting tools developed through a £20 million UK research programme are now protecting flights, GPS, and the electricity grid from severe space weather. The five-year SWIMMR (Space Weather Innovation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk) programme has created technologies already being used in live forecasting systems.
An independent evaluation by Frazer-Nash Consultancy indicates that the programme is transforming how the UK prepares for major solar events, which can disrupt satellites, aviation, and power networks. Severe solar storms, triggered by coronal mass ejections from the Sun, can interfere with satellite communications, navigation systems, and electricity networks.
Space weather is listed as a top-tier national risk in the UK's National Risk Register, alongside pandemic disease and major flooding. A National Audit Office report earlier this year estimated the potential economic impact of a severe space weather event at £9 billion.
During a powerful geomagnetic storm in May 2024, scientists at the British Geological Survey (BGS) used a new SWIMMR forecasting system to identify substations at risk from elevated earth currents. This system provided earlier warnings to operators, helping to reduce the risk of disruption to critical infrastructure.
The SWIMMR programme, which ran from 2019 to 2024, was led by the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). It aimed to improve forecast accuracy, expand access to reliable data, and accelerate the transfer of scientific research into operational forecasting systems.
Five UK-developed forecasting models are now moving into operational use at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). Full integration into operational services is expected by the end of 2026.