Australia's election landscape is undergoing a seismic shift as the right-wing One Nation party surges to unprecedented heights in opinion polls. Having secured just 6% of the primary vote in last year's federal election, recent surveys indicate that Pauline Hanson's party is now enjoying support levels ranging from the high 20s to low 30s - even surpassing those of the Labour Party on occasion.
This dramatic shift has rendered traditional election forecasting methods largely obsolete. George Hasanakos, head of research at DemosAu, describes the current situation as 'uncharted territory'. In the 2025 federal election, One Nation candidates made it to the final two contenders in only two seats and the final three in just 26. However, DemosAu's major MRP poll in March this year suggests that a One Nation candidate could now be a serious contender in over 100 seats.
Despite its increasing influence, One Nation faces a daunting challenge: cracking the inner metropolitan electorates, where it continues to perform poorly. To form a government, the party would need to secure around three-quarters of the 107 seats located in outer metropolitan, rural, and regional areas - no easy feat.
Australia's preferential voting system adds further complexity to predictions. Voters rank candidates, with the lowest-polling candidate eliminated if no one achieves a majority. In last year's election, only a handful of seats were decided on first preferences; most were influenced by how preferences flowed. With One Nation attracting former Coalition and Labour voters in significant numbers, historical patterns of preference distribution are unlikely to hold, making many seat outcomes highly unpredictable.
Hasanakos notes that One Nation is now firmly established as the leading conservative party in the polls, having lured a substantial proportion - possibly up to half - of former Coalition supporters. This shift means that remaining Coalition voters comprise an increasingly smaller group who may not favour Pauline Hanson's party, potentially impacting how their preferences flow and further destabilising traditional electoral calculations.