Alarming statistics reveal that more than 90 primary schools in England are either facing closure or are already on course for it, largely due to dwindling pupil numbers. A Guardian analysis of government data shows that an astonishing 88 primaries were two-thirds empty last year, putting their financial stability at risk.
The sharp decline in pupil numbers is attributed to a combination of factors, including plummeting birth rates and a mass exodus of young families from urban centres. Rising housing costs and soaring childcare expenses are driving families out of cities and towns, leading to a significant drop in primary school enrolments. This trend has severe implications for school funding, which is largely allocated on a per-pupil basis, making it challenging for schools with low attendance to remain financially viable.
Across England, the number of unfilled primary school places has reached its highest level since 2009-10, totalling approximately 570,000 vacant spots, or 11.5% of total capacity. The Department for Education anticipates a substantial decrease in overall state-funded pupil numbers over the next decade, projecting a decline of 944,000.
Jon Andrews, head of analysis at the Education Policy Institute thinktank, notes that primary school pupil numbers peaked in 2019 and have since fallen by around 0.5%. He warns that secondary schools are expected to peak in the coming academic year before also starting to decline, leading to a decrease in funding for schools. While per-pupil funding might be maintained, headteachers face significant overall budget cuts, potentially losing tens of thousands of pounds annually.
The issue is particularly acute in urban areas, with nearly half of identified at-risk schools located in cities and towns. However, rural villages account for a quarter of these schools, and more isolated parts of the country represent a further one in six. Local authorities across the UK are grappling with how to manage falling rolls; Birmingham City Council recently announced plans to reduce primary school places by over 300 from September 2024.
The Local Government Association has pointed out that councils face additional challenges due to their lack of direct control over academy schools. The LGA advocates for councils to be granted powers to reduce the size of or close academies, similar to their authority over maintained schools, especially when there is clear evidence of falling demand and a need to ensure financial viability.