Premier League teams dominating possession are winning fewer matches this season, with only 36.4% of games where a team held at least 60% possession resulting in a victory. This marks a significant drop from the 2023-24 season, which saw a 53.5% win rate for teams with similar possession figures.
The shift raises questions about the long-standing influence of possession-based football, often associated with Pep Guardiola's tactical approach. While Guardiola's Manchester City sides aimed to control games by keeping the ball, the current season suggests a potential change in the tactical landscape.
Chelsea, under Xabi Alonso, provides a case study, winning their opening games against Fulham and Brighton with less possession. However, they subsequently drew with Hull and lost to Brentford despite having more of the ball. Against Brighton, Chelsea recorded their lowest possession (25.6%) and successful passes (146) since 2003-04, yet scored four goals, often through quick play from throw-ins and counter-attacks.
Manchester United have also experienced this trend, averaging 1.5 points per game with over 50% possession under Michael Carrick, which rises to 2.6 points with less possession. Clubs like Brentford, Leeds, and Hull, without the same expectation to control the ball, have built squads suited to conceding possession and excelling in counter-attacking scenarios.