The early release of thousands of prisoners could lead to serious sexual or violent offences, or even murder, according to His Majesty's Chief Inspector of Probation for England and Wales. Martin Jones told the BBC that the probation system may not cope with the increased workload from the scheme.
The government plans to release 5,000 offenders from October under new laws designed to create space in overcrowded prisons. This follows a separate early release scheme implemented in 2024, which has already seen tens of thousands of offenders released sooner.
Probation services are currently managing 258,000 cases, and the early release scheme is expected to increase this pressure considerably. Mr Jones stated that the probation service has a vacancy rate of 20-25% and that staffing gaps, a lack of experience, and issues with information sharing were highlighted in inspectorate reports between January and March 2026.
Probation officers voted on Tuesday in favour of strike action over the scheme, with the union Napo reporting that 90% of its members backed potential industrial action. Napo national chair Ben Cockburn said the ballot was a warning that professionals cannot protect the public properly without enough staff.
A Ministry of Justice (MoJ) spokesperson said that protecting the public is their top priority and that the department had exceeded its recruitment target last year, with 1,389 trainee probation officers starting. The MoJ added that a record £700m investment in probation and community punishment is ensuring staff have the resources needed.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has indicated that all offenders released under the new laws will likely be tagged and have longer supervision periods. However, Mr Jones questioned whether the electronic tagging systems are robust enough to assist probation officers.
Mr Burnham is also facing pressure to prevent the early release of PC Andrew Harper's killers. Fifty police chiefs from across the UK wrote to the prime minister, urging him to explore every legal option to prevent their early release. Downing Street had initially warned that excluding specific offenders might not be possible, but the prime minister has since said he is confident they can be excluded.