The UK is set for a period of unsettled weather this week, with rain returning and a chance of thunderstorms and localised flooding. While drier conditions will continue for most on Monday, low pressure arriving from the south-west on Tuesday will bring showery conditions to parts of southern England and south Wales.
From Wednesday, more widespread and persistent rain is expected across England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Scotland is likely to remain mostly dry. The threat of torrential downpours with hail and thunderstorms will increase from later on Wednesday until Friday, with southern England and Wales identified as areas most at risk of localised flooding due to heavy rain falling on dry, hard ground.
Despite the return of wet weather, warmer air from southern Europe will push temperatures higher. Midweek highs could reach close to 30C in places, with 28 or 29C possible in the south-east of England and Wales. Temperatures in Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to reach around 20C by Wednesday. This warmer spell is anticipated to be short-lived, with temperatures unlikely to reach heatwave thresholds again before the end of August.
While the rainfall is welcome and will help river levels and soil moisture, significant cumulative rainfall over a period of time is needed for drought conditions to officially end, according to the British Geological Survey (BGS).