The long-held punditry belief that Premier League teams must outrun opponents to secure victory has been challenged by new analysis. Despite common criticism of teams for perceived low effort based on physical statistics, a direct correlation between distance covered and overall success appears minimal.
Following Manchester United dropping points against Tottenham, Jamie Redknapp highlighted Tottenham running five kilometres more. However, a comparison of last season's Premier League table with distance covered rankings shows little mirroring. The top 10 teams averaged 4,363km over the season, only 31km more than the bottom 10's average of 4,332km.
Similarly, teams that exceeded their Opta supercomputer pre-season predictions by at least one place averaged 4,369km, a mere 1.4% more than the 4,308km averaged by teams that underperformed. Notably, Sunderland and Manchester United, who significantly overachieved, were not among the top 10 for distance covered.
While a strong link between overall running distance and long-term success is not evident, analysis did suggest a hint of correlation between distance covered in possession and higher league finishes. On a game-by-game basis, teams covering at least 5km less than opponents had a win rate of 11.6% since the start of last season, rising to 12.1% when red card incidents are excluded.